Encouraging news: more than four million people watched the most recent Democratic presidential debate on CNN. Sobering news: that was only good enough for 14th place in the week's cable TV ratings. Ten of the Top 15 shows were episodes of "SpongeBob SquarePants" on Nickelodeon. Two others were WWE Raw wrestling shows. It's no surprise that more Americans would rather watch people in masks wrestle than see politicians wrestle with the truth. And having met Tom Kenny, the extremely funny guy who's the voice of SpongeBob, I have to admit he's far more entertaining than Dennis Kucinich. I'll take a SquarePants over a SmartyPants anyday.
Despite a whopping case of Debate Overload ("tonight, live from East Muscatine, Iowa, it's the Organic Bean Farmers Association's Vegan Voters Forum"), more and more people really are starting to tune in to this election, with only a month to go before primary and caucusgoers start casting ballots. And many of them are actually thinking for themselves, essentially ignoring the punditocracy. Most of America counts on Iowans and New Hampshire-ites (New Hampshireans?) to sort through the field and separate the wheat from the chaff, which is something farmers do better than the rest of us anyway. Have you ever actually seen chaff? I have a sneaking feeling it looks a lot like Mike Gravel. Typically, most Americans vote for the person they've heard of the most and believe will win, sort of like buying lunch at McDonald's and coffee at Starbuck's because they're familiar and you know what you're getting, even though the mom-and-pop cafe next door may grill a mean burger and brew a better latte.
But people in Iowa and New Hampshire take this process very seriously. They don't tend to care what the polls say. I'm mildly proud of the fact that I met every president from Carter to Clinton (they won't let me get closer than 20 feet or so to the current President Bush). But just about everyone in Dubuque, Iowa and Dover, NH has not only met every president since, say, Lyndon Johnson - they've also shaken hands and had coffee and talked at length with everyone who's even considered running for president in the last 40 years. They know how to measure their candidates, and unlike many in the media, they make up their own minds. I am always astonished by analysts and columnists who simply assume that the fall frontrunner is a shoo-in for the nomination. These are the people who gave you President Gephardt in 1992 and President Dean last time around. Nominations aren't won in August, or even November. We have all been told for six months that it will be Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani in 2008. It may well be, but I don't believe it for a second. I've written here before about why I don't think Rudy can win the nomination, let alone the election. Hillary remains a formidable frontrunner, but don't dismiss Barack Obama or John Edwards just yet. And look what's happening in Iowa: someone forgot to tell the Hawkeye Cauci voters that they're expected to bring their "INEVITABLE" stamps with them on Caucus Night so they can ratify Rudy and Hill.
Now, given the sterling performances of our recent presidents, maybe it's a mistake to let Iowa and New Hampshire do the sorting for us. Iowa Democrats tend to be more liberal than the norm, and Iowa Republicans are more conservative, heavily influenced by the Christian right. That can give early momentum to candidates who may not be the best choice for the national party, in either case. The Democrats, in particular, might do better in November if a state like Michigan or Ohio wielded more early clout. But this year, it could mean a real shakeup for the conventional wisdom. Rudy Giuliani simply doesn't play well among Iowa Republicans, which is why he's invested less in the state, and has a truly national strategy that pins more hope on the February 5th super primary, than on the early, more conservative states. Rudy doesn't need to win Iowa or New Hampshire to remain viable, while all of his competitors, except maybe the deep-pocketed Mitt Romney, do. So it's likely that either Romney or surging Mike Huckabee will win in Iowa, which will vault one of them to the top of the field, and maybe, finally, rattle all those pundits who keep insisting Giuliani will be the nominee. Again, Rudy can survive two early losses, but if Huckabee, for example, suddenly starts raking in money, volunteers, free media coverage and some national buzz after some early upsets, he could take away an awful lot of February 5 delegates that Rudy's camp has already been counting in his column.
Meanwhile, Democrats in Iowa are warming to Obama, find him more likable and genuine than Hillary, and could knock her Inevitability Train right off the track. A recent AP-Yahoo survey found voters far more willing this year to vote for the candidate that impresses them the most, instead of the one they think will win, which bodes well for the underdogs and not so well for the frontrunners. They're not even basing their decision on the perennial "who would I rather have a beer with?" test - because last time, the answer to that question was George W. Bush, and we all know how that's worked out.
It's good to see voters resist the pack mentality. Fifty percent of those supporting Obama say they think Hillary will beat him - but they don't care. About a third of Edwards voters feel the same way. The only way America will elect more effective presidents is if we think for ourselves, and don't choose the leaders that we're force-fed. We can have cartoon heroes with spongy minds, but let's open our own, with critical thinking and tough questions, as we make these critical choices over the next two months.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Obamapalooza - Here Comes Huckabee - Odd Bedfellows
OBAMAPALOOZA
Presidential candidates don't typically hunker down and stay awhile when they come to the Bay Area. This isn't Iowa or New Hampshire; usually, they sweep through in a whirlwind, leaving tired reporters and buzzing supporters in their wake. That's exactly what Barack Obama did this week, spending about 24 hours here, raising money as well as the hopes of his ardent fans.
Between fundraisers, Obama came to Google, the latest to appear in the company's "Candidates @Google" series. More than a thousand Googlers, mostly young, bright and enthusiastic, jammed the company cafeteria, clutching laptops and smart phones, to see Obama speak, and ask him a few questions. The charismatic presidential contender seemed downright middle-aged among this crowd; several times, he joked about his age and the relative youth of his audience, many of whom crammed onto the cafe's catwalks and balconies in positions older voters would never attempt. Think "Downward-Facing Democrat."
Google is a weird place. I haven't been there in a few years, and its growth is beyond exponential. It used to be a 20GB hard drive and now it's more like a 500-gig. Google security people escorted me everywhere I went, even to the men's room. I'm not sure what they were afraid of; I was more likely to scarf some of their legendary free gourmet food than company secrets. Their techno-smarts extend even to the bathrooms, where there are electronic bidets installed on the toilets, and Java code-writing tests posted in the stalls and above the urinals - something about mistakenly outfitting a Death Ray with a blue laser, when everyone knows green is cooler, so how would you fix that - and why not bone up on your software skills while answering nature's call?
Hillary Clinton probably drew the best of the five previous candidates to visit the Googleplex. But Obama's crowd dwarfed hers, according to numerous Googlers in the audience. Even the Google guys, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, were there, and they're not, usually. Obama was well-received, delivering a 12-minute or so speech about his "innovation agenda" - much of it similar to what all the other Democrats are proposing, except for his call for America's first Chief Technology Officer - and then sitting down for a 45-minute chat with Google CEO Eric Schmidt, and a few questions from the crowd. Obama was smart, funny and thoughtful, and the few Googlers I had time to speak with afterwards came away impressed.
I didn't have much time, because this was Obamapalooza, which meant I was off to the races - otherwise known as Highway 101 at rush hour - so I could make it back to San Francisco in time for the candidate's next appearance, a more typical campaign rally at Bill Graham Civic Auditorium. It was Obama's "Countdown to Change" event - except it turned into "countdown until the candidate shows up" for most of the throng of about six thousand. The line to get in snaked around the building, thanks to an oh-so-slow security process of metal detectors and body-wanding, which turned out to be a good thing, since most of the Obamamaniacs didn't get in until long after he was due to speak. But Obama ran especially late, not taking the stage until after 9pm, even though the doors opened at 6:30 and we were told to expect him around 7:30. He was busy raising money at the Atherton home of former California Controller Steve Westly, one of the leaders of his California campaign.
This was another young crowd, even more adoring than the Google bunch; after all, these folks paid money to be there, albeit just 15 to 30 dollars, but it still represents a commitment. They brought Obama to the stage with deafening shrieks, the kind people Obama's age (and mine) associate with Paul McCartney or maybe the Bay City Rollers. Obama's rousing 30-minute speech was punctuated with cries of "I love you!" from young women in the upper balconies. The Senator reacted with bemused smiles and sometimes a sheepish "I love you, too." I've covered most of the candidates now, and trust me, I haven't encountered too many voters with crushes on Hillary or Rudy.
Obama left the crowd buzzing about hope and change and possibilities. He does seem to have some new momentum, but is it enough to win the Iowa caucus? A victory there, or even a very close second, should give him a big boost in New Hampshire, but if he doesn't actually defeat Hillary in one of those states, it's hard to see him winning the nomination. An Iowa triumph will open the money spigot for whoever wins - it will bring magazine covers, a surge of new volunteers and media coverage - but without it, the only change Obama will be able to offer these loving crowds will be the loose stuff left at the bottom of his campaign piggy bank.
(To hear Obama's speeches at Google and in SF, please go to the Featured Audio column, either on the Sovern Nation home page or on Obama's Sovern Nation candidate page)
HERE COMES HUCKABEE
Which brings us to good ol' Mike Huckabee. We have written before in this space about his appealing qualities, and the good folks of Iowa seem to be embracing them. The former Arkansas governor is a tailor-made candidate for Hawkeye State Republicans: he is a staunch conservative with a terrific personal story, he's folksy and downhome, and he seems to be a sincere man of his word. He seems more reliably conservative than the Iowa frontrunner, Mitt Romney; he's more conservative in general than the national poll leader, Rudy Giuliani; and he's warmer and more likeable than Fred Thompson. And as Iowans cast about, searching for the right man from an underwhelming Republican field, more and more of them are settling on Huckabee. Why is he a longer shot than Mitt Romney? Huckabee is a former governor, with more experience in government than Romney, and he's a Baptist pastor, not a Mormon. The bottom line, sadly, is money: Romney's got it, by the bushel full, and has proven he can raise as much as he needs, while Huckabee has struggled to generate campaign cash. But the latest CBS News poll shows him hot on Romney's heels in Iowa, and if Huckabee scores an upset there, the money will flow as never before for him. Click on Latest Polling Data to check out those latest numbers from Iowa.
ODD BEDFELLOWS
Nothing underscores the angst of Republican voters more than the split among Christian conservatives, who find something to dislike about every one of these candidates, and whose failure to coalesce around one of them will weaken their own clout within the party and could undermine the GOP's eventual nominee.
We all know politics makes strange bedfellows, but Pat Robertson endorses Rudy Giuliani? The same Pat Robertson who famously said the September 11th attacks were God's punishment for rampant secularism? Now he's endorsing the pro-choice former Mayor of Godless City - I mean, Gotham City? In announcing his support, Robertson proclaimed Giuliani an "acceptable candidate." That's hardly a gushing endorsement. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback used the same words when he threw his support (such as it is) to John McCain, calling his former rival for the nomination "not perfect, but ideologically acceptable." Elsewhere in the past week, the National Right to Life Committee decided to go with Fred Thompson, who proudly touts his "100 percent pro-life voting record"...but Moral Majority co-founder Paul Weyrich endorsed Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, the last time I checked the AP-Ipsos poll, 24% of self-described born again voters were leaning towards Thompson, with 20% supporting Giuliani and 22% still not sure for whom they will vote.
The endorsement split reflects both uncertainty among the party's right wing and a reluctant concession to pragmatism. Conservative Republican leaders have gotten used to winning and they didn't enjoy the 2006 elections one bit. They're genuinely alarmed by the prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency, and disappointed by many of the actions of the Bush administration. They want to win in 2008, desperately, and this time around, they're willing to sacrifice some political principles for the sake of victory. But their diffuse and lukewarm support may serve simply to nullify their clout. They won't have as much impact in the nominating process if they split among four different contenders, and they're less likely to rally behind the eventual nominee if only 25% of them actually like him. Let's not forget 1996, when the GOP's conservative wing dithered and waffled and wrung its hands over Bob Dole and Pat Buchanan. Buchanan eventually got their support, but it was too late, and the conservatives didn't turn out in great enough numbers for Dole to beat Bill Clinton, with many of them bolting to Ross Perot's candidacy instead. Democratic voters seem much more likely to be enthusiastic about their party's nominee in 2008, and that could spell the difference in a tight race next November.
Presidential candidates don't typically hunker down and stay awhile when they come to the Bay Area. This isn't Iowa or New Hampshire; usually, they sweep through in a whirlwind, leaving tired reporters and buzzing supporters in their wake. That's exactly what Barack Obama did this week, spending about 24 hours here, raising money as well as the hopes of his ardent fans.
Between fundraisers, Obama came to Google, the latest to appear in the company's "Candidates @Google" series. More than a thousand Googlers, mostly young, bright and enthusiastic, jammed the company cafeteria, clutching laptops and smart phones, to see Obama speak, and ask him a few questions. The charismatic presidential contender seemed downright middle-aged among this crowd; several times, he joked about his age and the relative youth of his audience, many of whom crammed onto the cafe's catwalks and balconies in positions older voters would never attempt. Think "Downward-Facing Democrat."
Google is a weird place. I haven't been there in a few years, and its growth is beyond exponential. It used to be a 20GB hard drive and now it's more like a 500-gig. Google security people escorted me everywhere I went, even to the men's room. I'm not sure what they were afraid of; I was more likely to scarf some of their legendary free gourmet food than company secrets. Their techno-smarts extend even to the bathrooms, where there are electronic bidets installed on the toilets, and Java code-writing tests posted in the stalls and above the urinals - something about mistakenly outfitting a Death Ray with a blue laser, when everyone knows green is cooler, so how would you fix that - and why not bone up on your software skills while answering nature's call?
Hillary Clinton probably drew the best of the five previous candidates to visit the Googleplex. But Obama's crowd dwarfed hers, according to numerous Googlers in the audience. Even the Google guys, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, were there, and they're not, usually. Obama was well-received, delivering a 12-minute or so speech about his "innovation agenda" - much of it similar to what all the other Democrats are proposing, except for his call for America's first Chief Technology Officer - and then sitting down for a 45-minute chat with Google CEO Eric Schmidt, and a few questions from the crowd. Obama was smart, funny and thoughtful, and the few Googlers I had time to speak with afterwards came away impressed.
I didn't have much time, because this was Obamapalooza, which meant I was off to the races - otherwise known as Highway 101 at rush hour - so I could make it back to San Francisco in time for the candidate's next appearance, a more typical campaign rally at Bill Graham Civic Auditorium. It was Obama's "Countdown to Change" event - except it turned into "countdown until the candidate shows up" for most of the throng of about six thousand. The line to get in snaked around the building, thanks to an oh-so-slow security process of metal detectors and body-wanding, which turned out to be a good thing, since most of the Obamamaniacs didn't get in until long after he was due to speak. But Obama ran especially late, not taking the stage until after 9pm, even though the doors opened at 6:30 and we were told to expect him around 7:30. He was busy raising money at the Atherton home of former California Controller Steve Westly, one of the leaders of his California campaign.
This was another young crowd, even more adoring than the Google bunch; after all, these folks paid money to be there, albeit just 15 to 30 dollars, but it still represents a commitment. They brought Obama to the stage with deafening shrieks, the kind people Obama's age (and mine) associate with Paul McCartney or maybe the Bay City Rollers. Obama's rousing 30-minute speech was punctuated with cries of "I love you!" from young women in the upper balconies. The Senator reacted with bemused smiles and sometimes a sheepish "I love you, too." I've covered most of the candidates now, and trust me, I haven't encountered too many voters with crushes on Hillary or Rudy.
Obama left the crowd buzzing about hope and change and possibilities. He does seem to have some new momentum, but is it enough to win the Iowa caucus? A victory there, or even a very close second, should give him a big boost in New Hampshire, but if he doesn't actually defeat Hillary in one of those states, it's hard to see him winning the nomination. An Iowa triumph will open the money spigot for whoever wins - it will bring magazine covers, a surge of new volunteers and media coverage - but without it, the only change Obama will be able to offer these loving crowds will be the loose stuff left at the bottom of his campaign piggy bank.
(To hear Obama's speeches at Google and in SF, please go to the Featured Audio column, either on the Sovern Nation home page or on Obama's Sovern Nation candidate page)
HERE COMES HUCKABEE
Which brings us to good ol' Mike Huckabee. We have written before in this space about his appealing qualities, and the good folks of Iowa seem to be embracing them. The former Arkansas governor is a tailor-made candidate for Hawkeye State Republicans: he is a staunch conservative with a terrific personal story, he's folksy and downhome, and he seems to be a sincere man of his word. He seems more reliably conservative than the Iowa frontrunner, Mitt Romney; he's more conservative in general than the national poll leader, Rudy Giuliani; and he's warmer and more likeable than Fred Thompson. And as Iowans cast about, searching for the right man from an underwhelming Republican field, more and more of them are settling on Huckabee. Why is he a longer shot than Mitt Romney? Huckabee is a former governor, with more experience in government than Romney, and he's a Baptist pastor, not a Mormon. The bottom line, sadly, is money: Romney's got it, by the bushel full, and has proven he can raise as much as he needs, while Huckabee has struggled to generate campaign cash. But the latest CBS News poll shows him hot on Romney's heels in Iowa, and if Huckabee scores an upset there, the money will flow as never before for him. Click on Latest Polling Data to check out those latest numbers from Iowa.
ODD BEDFELLOWS
Nothing underscores the angst of Republican voters more than the split among Christian conservatives, who find something to dislike about every one of these candidates, and whose failure to coalesce around one of them will weaken their own clout within the party and could undermine the GOP's eventual nominee.
We all know politics makes strange bedfellows, but Pat Robertson endorses Rudy Giuliani? The same Pat Robertson who famously said the September 11th attacks were God's punishment for rampant secularism? Now he's endorsing the pro-choice former Mayor of Godless City - I mean, Gotham City? In announcing his support, Robertson proclaimed Giuliani an "acceptable candidate." That's hardly a gushing endorsement. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback used the same words when he threw his support (such as it is) to John McCain, calling his former rival for the nomination "not perfect, but ideologically acceptable." Elsewhere in the past week, the National Right to Life Committee decided to go with Fred Thompson, who proudly touts his "100 percent pro-life voting record"...but Moral Majority co-founder Paul Weyrich endorsed Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, the last time I checked the AP-Ipsos poll, 24% of self-described born again voters were leaning towards Thompson, with 20% supporting Giuliani and 22% still not sure for whom they will vote.
The endorsement split reflects both uncertainty among the party's right wing and a reluctant concession to pragmatism. Conservative Republican leaders have gotten used to winning and they didn't enjoy the 2006 elections one bit. They're genuinely alarmed by the prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency, and disappointed by many of the actions of the Bush administration. They want to win in 2008, desperately, and this time around, they're willing to sacrifice some political principles for the sake of victory. But their diffuse and lukewarm support may serve simply to nullify their clout. They won't have as much impact in the nominating process if they split among four different contenders, and they're less likely to rally behind the eventual nominee if only 25% of them actually like him. Let's not forget 1996, when the GOP's conservative wing dithered and waffled and wrung its hands over Bob Dole and Pat Buchanan. Buchanan eventually got their support, but it was too late, and the conservatives didn't turn out in great enough numbers for Dole to beat Bill Clinton, with many of them bolting to Ross Perot's candidacy instead. Democratic voters seem much more likely to be enthusiastic about their party's nominee in 2008, and that could spell the difference in a tight race next November.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Spin Class
Uh-oh, here we go, those darn candidates are debating again. That means a barrage of emails in my inbox from their spin docs as soon as the pontificating and question-dodging is done. But why wait? These days, the campaigns inundate the ink-stained wretches of the working press around the clock, whether anything significant has happened or not. The latest trend is to send us "confidential campaign memos" and "strategy sheets," that make their case while seeming to include us in their most private thinking. These talking points eventually turn up in wire stories and newspaper columns, which is exactly what the campaigns want. And now some of them will turn up here...except I'm going to bust them for driving me spin-sane. (I've even thought about setting up some sort of junk filter that I would call my "spinbox" to keep these things from cluttering up my email).
The smoothest operator is Mark Penn, chief strategist for Hillary Clinton's campaign. This comes as no surprise, since Penn is the CEO of Burson Marsteller, maybe the leading PR company in the world. If anyone is the master of message massage, it's Penn. We've been getting his "memos" all year, with headings like "Strength and Experience" and "Strengths of Hillary Emerging." Guess what they say? If they actually revealed Hillary's strategy, they would be fascinating. But they typically just tell us about her surge in the polls...her presidential bearing...how comfortable the voters are getting with her...and how the dynamics of the race favor Senator Clinton. But they sure look like secret internal campaign documents, with the inside deep dish.
The other leading campaigns have similar strategists sending similar memos, if not as well-written. Some are thinly disguised appeals for campaign contributions. Some are laughable bits of stunning puffery. Joe Trippi, who is managing John Edwards' campaign, sent one out called "Karl Rove's Worst Nightmare," about how all the Republican attacks on Hillary Clinton are designed to engineer her nomination, because Rove and the GOP have identified Clinton as the easiest Democrat to beat. By attacking Hillary, they figure, they will rally Democratic primary voters around the one candidate they'd most like to face next November. In fact, writes Trippi, his man Edwards has the best shot at beating the eventual Republican nominee. There's some truth to this; the Bush re-election team did go after John Kerry in 2004 because they feared Edwards more. And there's no doubt that Hillary Clinton has higher negative ratings than Edwards. But is Edwards really the "only Democratic candidate who can beat any of the Republican candidates hands down" - as Trippi writes in his memo? Uh, no. They all can. The Hillary-haters and the racists who won't ever vote for Barack Obama might make it tougher for either Clinton or Obama to get elected, but many polls consistently show the top three Democrats well ahead of the top four Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.
Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, uses any excuse to send out a memo than ends with an appeal - complete with a link - for campaign contributions. I'll probably get one tonight reminding me how much it costs to buy makeup for these debates, and don't I want to join Powder Puffers for Obama?
Then there's Brett Seaborn, campaign strategist for Rudy Giuliani. He seems to simply make things up. Like the map he sent out that "guarantees" at least 210 electoral votes for the former New York Mayor, if Giuliani faces Hillary Clinton in the general election. Seaborn maintains that Rudy would force Hillary to waste her vast campaign fortune competing in places like New York and California, that she'd be able to take for granted if she were running against John McCain, Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney. Really? Yes, Rudy is more moderate than the other three, but he would have little to no chance of beating Clinton in California. And if memory serves, Rudy bowed out of a Senate race against Hillary in New York that she won handily. Now he's going to beat her there for the presidency? Nice try, Brett, but in reality, wouldn't Thompson, McCain and Romney all run better than your guy in the Deep South? Are conservative evangelicals in Texas and the Carolinas really going to turn out for Rudy?
And now that Obama and Edwards have decided to take off the gloves and start tearing into Hillary, Mark Penn has sent me a new memo, a pre-emptive strike against their anticipated attacks. "One candidate is defining the 'politics of hope' ," he writes, "while the others are abandoning them...Does the 'politics of hope' mean launching attacks on one candidate? Does it means questioning a rival's integrity?" Which is exactly what Edwards and Obama are starting to do. Edwards suggests that Hillary's presidency would be a "Democratic version of the Republican corruption machine," and given past allegations, that's not that outrageous a claim. But with only about two months now before Americans start voting, the candidates who are falling behind are bound to start getting nasty, and does Penn really expect us to believe that Hillary wouldn't lash out too, if she were 25 points behind, instead of 25 points ahead?
Sigh. I guess I'd better go empty my spinbox. It could be a long night.
NOTES AND VOTES:
I (Heart) Huckabee
Mike Huckabee is my Republican dark horse. Is he going to be president? I really doubt it. But I always look for a likeable governor (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush - you get the idea), and Huckabee sure fills the bill. He comes across as honest, sincere and genuinely nice, and how many politicians can you say that about? He's also unwaveringly conservative, which makes him appealing to Republicans who are wary of Giuliani's social positions and Romney's flip-flops. He's got a terrific personal story (lost lots of weight, runs marathons, plays the bass in a band, is even from Hope, Arkansas - the same town as Bill Clinton) and is consolidating the right wing voters that are lukewarm about the frontrunners. Prediction: Huckabee surges into the top tier with a surprisingly strong showing in Iowa, parlays that into a Top Three finish in New Hampshire, and hangs around long enough to maybe get the number two spot on the GOP ticket. You heard it here first, folks.
Obama Opens Up
Barack Obama slammed the Bush administration the other day for being secretive and opaque. He promised an "open government" attitude when he's president, saying "I'm not just going to have one of these press conferences every six months where I call on my three favorite reporters. We're going to have regular press conferences to explain to the American people, here's what we're trying to do, and to be held accountable." Sure, let the sun shine in, Barack - except maybe you should prove you mean it by starting now. I've covered five Obama appearances in the Bay Area so far this year - and only once did he have a news conference. He routinely avoids reporters and their pesky questions. At the California Democratic Convention in San Diego last spring, he was the only one of the eight candidates who did not meet with the media. He's coming back to San Francisco November 14th - let's see if he talks to KCBS (or any other media!) this time around.
Mr. Mitt Builds His Dream House
Maybe the long slog of the campaign trail is taking its toll on Mitt Romney. He's said some pretty strange things lately. First he confused Barack Obama with Osama bin Laden, repeatedly referring to Al Qaeda's leader by the Illinois Senator's name, and then actually attributing bin Laden's latest anti-West rant to Obama. And then, did you catch that odd moment in last week's Republican debate in Florida? Here's what Romney said: "Look, we're all Republicans on this stage. The question is, who's going to build the house, who's going to strengthen the house that Ronald Reagan built, because that's the house that's going to build the house that Clinton Hillary wants to build." Huh??? (And yes, he said Clinton Hillary). I know Bill Clinton was big on building bridges to the 21st century. Now that we're there, Romney wants to build us a house. Apparently, it's a big Republican house. One that can build other houses. That's a heck of a house. Luckily for us all, Mitt Romney has enough money to build it without needing a subprime mortgage.
The smoothest operator is Mark Penn, chief strategist for Hillary Clinton's campaign. This comes as no surprise, since Penn is the CEO of Burson Marsteller, maybe the leading PR company in the world. If anyone is the master of message massage, it's Penn. We've been getting his "memos" all year, with headings like "Strength and Experience" and "Strengths of Hillary Emerging." Guess what they say? If they actually revealed Hillary's strategy, they would be fascinating. But they typically just tell us about her surge in the polls...her presidential bearing...how comfortable the voters are getting with her...and how the dynamics of the race favor Senator Clinton. But they sure look like secret internal campaign documents, with the inside deep dish.
The other leading campaigns have similar strategists sending similar memos, if not as well-written. Some are thinly disguised appeals for campaign contributions. Some are laughable bits of stunning puffery. Joe Trippi, who is managing John Edwards' campaign, sent one out called "Karl Rove's Worst Nightmare," about how all the Republican attacks on Hillary Clinton are designed to engineer her nomination, because Rove and the GOP have identified Clinton as the easiest Democrat to beat. By attacking Hillary, they figure, they will rally Democratic primary voters around the one candidate they'd most like to face next November. In fact, writes Trippi, his man Edwards has the best shot at beating the eventual Republican nominee. There's some truth to this; the Bush re-election team did go after John Kerry in 2004 because they feared Edwards more. And there's no doubt that Hillary Clinton has higher negative ratings than Edwards. But is Edwards really the "only Democratic candidate who can beat any of the Republican candidates hands down" - as Trippi writes in his memo? Uh, no. They all can. The Hillary-haters and the racists who won't ever vote for Barack Obama might make it tougher for either Clinton or Obama to get elected, but many polls consistently show the top three Democrats well ahead of the top four Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.
Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, uses any excuse to send out a memo than ends with an appeal - complete with a link - for campaign contributions. I'll probably get one tonight reminding me how much it costs to buy makeup for these debates, and don't I want to join Powder Puffers for Obama?
Then there's Brett Seaborn, campaign strategist for Rudy Giuliani. He seems to simply make things up. Like the map he sent out that "guarantees" at least 210 electoral votes for the former New York Mayor, if Giuliani faces Hillary Clinton in the general election. Seaborn maintains that Rudy would force Hillary to waste her vast campaign fortune competing in places like New York and California, that she'd be able to take for granted if she were running against John McCain, Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney. Really? Yes, Rudy is more moderate than the other three, but he would have little to no chance of beating Clinton in California. And if memory serves, Rudy bowed out of a Senate race against Hillary in New York that she won handily. Now he's going to beat her there for the presidency? Nice try, Brett, but in reality, wouldn't Thompson, McCain and Romney all run better than your guy in the Deep South? Are conservative evangelicals in Texas and the Carolinas really going to turn out for Rudy?
And now that Obama and Edwards have decided to take off the gloves and start tearing into Hillary, Mark Penn has sent me a new memo, a pre-emptive strike against their anticipated attacks. "One candidate is defining the 'politics of hope' ," he writes, "while the others are abandoning them...Does the 'politics of hope' mean launching attacks on one candidate? Does it means questioning a rival's integrity?" Which is exactly what Edwards and Obama are starting to do. Edwards suggests that Hillary's presidency would be a "Democratic version of the Republican corruption machine," and given past allegations, that's not that outrageous a claim. But with only about two months now before Americans start voting, the candidates who are falling behind are bound to start getting nasty, and does Penn really expect us to believe that Hillary wouldn't lash out too, if she were 25 points behind, instead of 25 points ahead?
Sigh. I guess I'd better go empty my spinbox. It could be a long night.
NOTES AND VOTES:
I (Heart) Huckabee
Mike Huckabee is my Republican dark horse. Is he going to be president? I really doubt it. But I always look for a likeable governor (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush - you get the idea), and Huckabee sure fills the bill. He comes across as honest, sincere and genuinely nice, and how many politicians can you say that about? He's also unwaveringly conservative, which makes him appealing to Republicans who are wary of Giuliani's social positions and Romney's flip-flops. He's got a terrific personal story (lost lots of weight, runs marathons, plays the bass in a band, is even from Hope, Arkansas - the same town as Bill Clinton) and is consolidating the right wing voters that are lukewarm about the frontrunners. Prediction: Huckabee surges into the top tier with a surprisingly strong showing in Iowa, parlays that into a Top Three finish in New Hampshire, and hangs around long enough to maybe get the number two spot on the GOP ticket. You heard it here first, folks.
Obama Opens Up
Barack Obama slammed the Bush administration the other day for being secretive and opaque. He promised an "open government" attitude when he's president, saying "I'm not just going to have one of these press conferences every six months where I call on my three favorite reporters. We're going to have regular press conferences to explain to the American people, here's what we're trying to do, and to be held accountable." Sure, let the sun shine in, Barack - except maybe you should prove you mean it by starting now. I've covered five Obama appearances in the Bay Area so far this year - and only once did he have a news conference. He routinely avoids reporters and their pesky questions. At the California Democratic Convention in San Diego last spring, he was the only one of the eight candidates who did not meet with the media. He's coming back to San Francisco November 14th - let's see if he talks to KCBS (or any other media!) this time around.
Mr. Mitt Builds His Dream House
Maybe the long slog of the campaign trail is taking its toll on Mitt Romney. He's said some pretty strange things lately. First he confused Barack Obama with Osama bin Laden, repeatedly referring to Al Qaeda's leader by the Illinois Senator's name, and then actually attributing bin Laden's latest anti-West rant to Obama. And then, did you catch that odd moment in last week's Republican debate in Florida? Here's what Romney said: "Look, we're all Republicans on this stage. The question is, who's going to build the house, who's going to strengthen the house that Ronald Reagan built, because that's the house that's going to build the house that Clinton Hillary wants to build." Huh??? (And yes, he said Clinton Hillary). I know Bill Clinton was big on building bridges to the 21st century. Now that we're there, Romney wants to build us a house. Apparently, it's a big Republican house. One that can build other houses. That's a heck of a house. Luckily for us all, Mitt Romney has enough money to build it without needing a subprime mortgage.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Hillary vs. Obama, Etc.
HILLARY VS. OBAMA
This past Sunday was Democratic Smackdown Day in downtown Oakland. Hillary Clinton came back to the Bay Area for a huge campaign rally at 14th and Clay. The Clinton team pushed hard to get a big turnout, making robo-calls to random cell phones, to generate a crowd. Unfortunately, five of those random calls went to the phone of Barack Obama's California campaign director, Mitchell Schwartz. By sheer coincidence, he was planning to open Obama's Northern California headquarters a block away (at 14th and Broadway) the next afternoon. But upon learning about Hillary's event, he moved the shindig up a day, to try to steal some of Hillary's thunder.
The Obama camp put on a hiphop rally, starring local rappers Blackalicious. They gave out stickers and sold buttons. They brought in local elected officials who have endorsed Obama. They cut the ribbon on their first campaign office outside of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada (Oakland even got one before Obama's adopted hometown of Chicago). The sparsely furnished office smelled of brand new industrial carpet, and eager young volunteers sparred over which folding table should go where. But they were missing one key ingredient: Obama. The Illinois Senator was campaigning elsewhere, vacuuming up campaign contributions on the last day of the third quarter fundraising period.
That kept the crowd down to about 500 people or so. As the Obama party was in as full a swing as it was going to get, thousands started lining up across the street for the Hillary rally, attended by Hillary herself. That crowd probably topped ten thousand eventually; Clinton organizers claimed 14,000, but that seemed generous to me. But it was laid out in an awkward fashion. Instead of using the crowd-friendly plaza in front of City Hall, as Obama did earlier this year, Clinton's people set up their stage in the middle of an intersection, and packed her fans down the side streets. This left thousands craning their necks from about a block away, trying to catch a glimpse of the Senator. I didn't hear much grumbling about it though; the crowd was enthusiastic, and thrilled to get even that close to the woman they hope will be president.
Both rallies aimed for Oaktown street cred, with R&B artists, African American religious leaders, and black local officeholders. But there was also a distinctly San Francisco flavor to this Oakland showdown. The biggest name on hand for Obama was San Francisco's DA, Kamala Harris. The mayor of Oakland, Ron Dellums, avoided both events...but San Francisco's Mayor, Gavin Newsom, was on stage with Hillary and spoke on her behalf. Clinton paraded a who's who of Bay Area black preachers, but they were all from San Francisco, led by the venerable Rev. Cecil Williams. It's pretty clear Hillary and Barack are waging an all-out war for the black vote, which polls show is split right down the middle between them. It's not good news for Obama that Clinton is doing so well among his presumed natural constituency, especially when women are breaking heavily for Hillary, and accounting for much of her huge lead in the national polls.
Mayor Dellums endorsed Hillary the next day, at a separate event, which took the Obama campaign by surprise. His handlers had no idea they had lost the fight for the mayor's nod, until they were notified by reporters, minutes before the announcement. Dellums' clout has faded nationally, but he still has tremendous moral authority among the black community, and his face and name will mean on a lot on those Election Eve mailers, when undecided voters are wavering between Clinton and Obama.
ODDS AND ENDS
My favorite typo this election season was on the Associated Press wire the other day. It was in a story about how Rudy Giuliani is trash-talking about Hillary on the campaign trail, boasting about his own electability, and dismissing the chances of his Republican rivals. Except the story said Rudy is touting his "delectability," instead of electability. Does anyone other than Judy Nathan really find Rudy delectable? And even then, only when he's wearing one of his dresses. Which is probably why the AP later moved a correction, saying it meant electable, not delectable.
COME ON BIG MONEY!
The number-crunching isn't done yet, but Hillary had an astounding third quarter of fundraising, raking in more than $22 million, surpassing not just Obama but even her own campaign's expectations. We'll talk more about this in the next week or two, after all the campaigns turn in their paperwork and we can see where all this money came from. It will also be useful to see how much has been spent, because cash on hand will determine which candidates can afford big media buys in the weeks before the first primaries.
A NAGGING WORRY
Something always seems slightly amiss when I attend a Hillary Clinton campaign function. The aforementioned logistics at the Oakland rally, for example. The unseemly "upgrade" line at that block party, where attendees had to cough up a 20-dollar bill to get a spot closer to the stage. Then there was the strange scene at the Dellums endorsement announcement, which was held at Laney College in Oakland. Students were barred from the event, which was attended by 75 invited guests, handpicked by Mayor Dellums. Angry college kids jammed the quad below, demanding access, which they were finally granted when the campaign realized it had a PR nightmare waiting to happen. A hundred or so were allowed to stand in the back of the room while Dellums and Clinton spoke, but the editor of the school paper, Reginald James, who's also a student trustee on the college board, said he felt insulted, and wondered why Clinton would hold such an event on a college campus but then exclude students. None of this bodes well for how a Clinton administration would run the country.
You can hear Hillary's speech at the Oakland rally, Mayor Dellums' fiery endorsement of her, and her remarks about Iran, Iraq and Dellums at that event, in the Featured Audio section on the home page, or on iTunes as a podcast.
NEXT TIME: The "secret" internal memos the campaigns send us, to tell us how well they're doing and lay out their strategy.
This past Sunday was Democratic Smackdown Day in downtown Oakland. Hillary Clinton came back to the Bay Area for a huge campaign rally at 14th and Clay. The Clinton team pushed hard to get a big turnout, making robo-calls to random cell phones, to generate a crowd. Unfortunately, five of those random calls went to the phone of Barack Obama's California campaign director, Mitchell Schwartz. By sheer coincidence, he was planning to open Obama's Northern California headquarters a block away (at 14th and Broadway) the next afternoon. But upon learning about Hillary's event, he moved the shindig up a day, to try to steal some of Hillary's thunder.
The Obama camp put on a hiphop rally, starring local rappers Blackalicious. They gave out stickers and sold buttons. They brought in local elected officials who have endorsed Obama. They cut the ribbon on their first campaign office outside of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada (Oakland even got one before Obama's adopted hometown of Chicago). The sparsely furnished office smelled of brand new industrial carpet, and eager young volunteers sparred over which folding table should go where. But they were missing one key ingredient: Obama. The Illinois Senator was campaigning elsewhere, vacuuming up campaign contributions on the last day of the third quarter fundraising period.
That kept the crowd down to about 500 people or so. As the Obama party was in as full a swing as it was going to get, thousands started lining up across the street for the Hillary rally, attended by Hillary herself. That crowd probably topped ten thousand eventually; Clinton organizers claimed 14,000, but that seemed generous to me. But it was laid out in an awkward fashion. Instead of using the crowd-friendly plaza in front of City Hall, as Obama did earlier this year, Clinton's people set up their stage in the middle of an intersection, and packed her fans down the side streets. This left thousands craning their necks from about a block away, trying to catch a glimpse of the Senator. I didn't hear much grumbling about it though; the crowd was enthusiastic, and thrilled to get even that close to the woman they hope will be president.
Both rallies aimed for Oaktown street cred, with R&B artists, African American religious leaders, and black local officeholders. But there was also a distinctly San Francisco flavor to this Oakland showdown. The biggest name on hand for Obama was San Francisco's DA, Kamala Harris. The mayor of Oakland, Ron Dellums, avoided both events...but San Francisco's Mayor, Gavin Newsom, was on stage with Hillary and spoke on her behalf. Clinton paraded a who's who of Bay Area black preachers, but they were all from San Francisco, led by the venerable Rev. Cecil Williams. It's pretty clear Hillary and Barack are waging an all-out war for the black vote, which polls show is split right down the middle between them. It's not good news for Obama that Clinton is doing so well among his presumed natural constituency, especially when women are breaking heavily for Hillary, and accounting for much of her huge lead in the national polls.
Mayor Dellums endorsed Hillary the next day, at a separate event, which took the Obama campaign by surprise. His handlers had no idea they had lost the fight for the mayor's nod, until they were notified by reporters, minutes before the announcement. Dellums' clout has faded nationally, but he still has tremendous moral authority among the black community, and his face and name will mean on a lot on those Election Eve mailers, when undecided voters are wavering between Clinton and Obama.
ODDS AND ENDS
My favorite typo this election season was on the Associated Press wire the other day. It was in a story about how Rudy Giuliani is trash-talking about Hillary on the campaign trail, boasting about his own electability, and dismissing the chances of his Republican rivals. Except the story said Rudy is touting his "delectability," instead of electability. Does anyone other than Judy Nathan really find Rudy delectable? And even then, only when he's wearing one of his dresses. Which is probably why the AP later moved a correction, saying it meant electable, not delectable.
COME ON BIG MONEY!
The number-crunching isn't done yet, but Hillary had an astounding third quarter of fundraising, raking in more than $22 million, surpassing not just Obama but even her own campaign's expectations. We'll talk more about this in the next week or two, after all the campaigns turn in their paperwork and we can see where all this money came from. It will also be useful to see how much has been spent, because cash on hand will determine which candidates can afford big media buys in the weeks before the first primaries.
A NAGGING WORRY
Something always seems slightly amiss when I attend a Hillary Clinton campaign function. The aforementioned logistics at the Oakland rally, for example. The unseemly "upgrade" line at that block party, where attendees had to cough up a 20-dollar bill to get a spot closer to the stage. Then there was the strange scene at the Dellums endorsement announcement, which was held at Laney College in Oakland. Students were barred from the event, which was attended by 75 invited guests, handpicked by Mayor Dellums. Angry college kids jammed the quad below, demanding access, which they were finally granted when the campaign realized it had a PR nightmare waiting to happen. A hundred or so were allowed to stand in the back of the room while Dellums and Clinton spoke, but the editor of the school paper, Reginald James, who's also a student trustee on the college board, said he felt insulted, and wondered why Clinton would hold such an event on a college campus but then exclude students. None of this bodes well for how a Clinton administration would run the country.
You can hear Hillary's speech at the Oakland rally, Mayor Dellums' fiery endorsement of her, and her remarks about Iran, Iraq and Dellums at that event, in the Featured Audio section on the home page, or on iTunes as a podcast.
NEXT TIME: The "secret" internal memos the campaigns send us, to tell us how well they're doing and lay out their strategy.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Catching Mitt
Once upon a time...maybe a dozen years ago...I was waiting for the elevator at One Embarcadero Center in San Francisco, the 40-story skyscraper where our radio station used to be, before we moved into Gray Rock, the local CBS complex. The elevator doors opened, and out swept a tall, handsome man of impeccable bearing, flanked by a coterie of solicitous sycophants.
"Who's that?" I asked the lobby guard, as the man and his entourage bustled by.
"Why, that's Mr. Bain," he beamed.
"No," corrected a second guard, "that's Mr. ROMNEY."
It was, in fact, Willard Mitt Romney, the CEO of Bain Capital, the private equity firm that occupied two or three floors of offices below our studios. He was the son of former Michigan Governor George Romney (who'd been president of American Motors), and a very rich man.
The other day, I saw Mitt Romney in person for the first time since then. He came to Silicon Valley for the first public Bay Area appearance of his presidential campaign. He's been here quite a few times to raise campaign funds - something he's quite good at - but this was his initial contact with Northern California voters.
Romney spoke at a Santa Clara restaurant, holding one of his "Ask Mitt Anything" town hall meetings. It was free, and anyone could come, and a capacity crowd did. They were mostly, but not all, Republicans, and many were undecided, curious, eager to learn more about the former Massachusetts governor.
Romney has aged well. He is 60 years old, still tall and handsome, upright and trim. He's grayed at the temples, but hey, haven't we all? (Okay, I guess I haven't, but if more of my hair hadn't abandoned my head, it might be gray by now). He's still impeccably tailored and carries himself with the assurance of a man of privilege, someone who knows who he is and feels good about it. He's comfortable with people, smooth-talking, a pleasant chatter. He looks you in the eye, finds a way to relate, smiles easily, remembers your name. It's no wonder he's made a quarter of a billion dollars, and become a successful politician -- which is why I think he's being underestimated by many of the pundits, who can't look beyond his religion, and why I think he'll do a lot better in the Republican primaries than many people expect.
I've had Mitt Romney in the top spot in my GOP Power Rankings since I started posting them in June. Some are incredulous at that, pointing to his low showing in the national polls, and dismissing Romney's chances because he's a Mormon. But the man is a fundraising machine, can (and will) supplement those donations with his own fortune, has done extraordinarily well in the early debates, and has built an impressive ground operation in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. He's been on television and radio for months now in the Midwest, where his name recognition is much higher than it is nationally, and the voters who have met him at bakeries, restaurants and these "town hall" meetings, like him.
Let's face it, Mitt has "it." "It" is, for better or worse, the main determinant of success in an American presidential election. Got it? You've got a chance. Don't? Forget it, you're Al Gore. Or John Kerry. Or Bob Dole. Or Michael Dukakis, Fritz Mondale or the first George Bush or Jimmy Carter when they were running for re-election (psst: "it" can wear off).
Unfortunately, most American voters base their Election Day decision on likability, not self-interest. Polls in 2000 showed a majority disagreed with George W. Bush's positions and beliefs, yet enough voted for him anyway to put him in position to "win" that election, simply because they felt more comfortable with him than with Al Gore. Americans want a leader who projects confidence and quiet strength, not intellectual arrogance, and certainly not tentativeness. For many, many years, the taller candidate has always won...although Bush broke that streak, by defeating the taller Kerry (Gore is taller than Bush too, but he got more popular votes, remember?). Most voters will never meet their president, let alone have a beer with him or her, so it's certainly silly to vote for someone you like in the abstract but whose policies will tangibly worsen your life -- but most don't ever bother to study those policies, so the beer buddy test has to suffice.
There's no doubt that getting the measure of a man, or woman, can tell you a lot about his or her character, and my votes in the past have certainly been influenced by my interactions with the candidates. John Edwards has a very firm handshake; Barack Obama is extremely bright and exudes charisma; Fred Thompson seems twitchy. Rudy Giuliani seems almost mean sometimes; John McCain is funny and has a quick, self-deprecating wit; Hillary Clinton comes across as incredibly smart, well-studied and self-assured. But I would still never vote for someone with whom I disagreed consistently on the issues, no matter how much I liked them. I am in a very fortunate position of uncommon access to these people, so it is my job to communicate what I can to those who aren't, to help them make a more educated decision. That's why you can hear every word Mitt Romney uttered in Santa Clara, under the Featured Audio section of his SovNat page (click on Mitt's button under Meet the Candidates) and also on the home page Featured Audio. He talked a lot about education, immigration, technology, the economy - mostly bread-and-butter, pocketbook issues that hit home with the Silicon Valley crowd. He uses words like "mosey on down" and "folks" and talks a lot about America, the future, greatness - always upbeat, optimistic, and folksy. I think he's going to wear very well on the voters, and I would not be that surprised to see him pop out of the early primaries and surge past Giuliani, Thompson and McCain.
We did catch him off guard a couple of times, though. Romney changes his positions the way other candidates change suits. How many of you have completely altered your thinking on fundamental social issues such as abortion, gay rights and gun control over the last five or ten years? Romney has. The woman who introduced him in Santa Clara enthused about how great it would be to finally have a real businessman in the White House, someone from the private sector with an MBA, sentiments Romney echoed, apparently forgetting that that also describes George W. Bush. When I asked Romney about that, he said he wasn't talking about Bush, or any of his rivals - and then proceeded to say that none of his rivals could match his Wall Street cred. We also asked him about the Blackwater scandal in Iraq, since the company's vice chairman, Cofer Black, is Romney's top campaign advisor on national security. It was the only time I saw uncertainty in his eyes. He seemed unprepared for the question, and stammered through a non-answer, about awaiting the results of the investigation into the "troubling" allegations.
Romney's nomination would be good news for Hillary Clinton, because evangelical Christians don't trust him, and conservative Republicans wouldn't be motivated to turn out for him in November. Clinton, or whomever the Democrats nominate, should prefer Romney to Fred Thompson, who might prove a more formidable general election opponent. But stand Thompson next to Romney on a stage at an Iowa county fair or a New Hampshire candidates' forum, and see who makes more voters smile and nod.
"Mit" means "with" in German. I think more and more Republicans are going to be mit Mitt, as we get closer to those first primaries. If not...with that square jaw and smooth baritone, he'd make an outstanding TV anchor. Maybe he'll swing by CBS for another visit.
"Who's that?" I asked the lobby guard, as the man and his entourage bustled by.
"Why, that's Mr. Bain," he beamed.
"No," corrected a second guard, "that's Mr. ROMNEY."
It was, in fact, Willard Mitt Romney, the CEO of Bain Capital, the private equity firm that occupied two or three floors of offices below our studios. He was the son of former Michigan Governor George Romney (who'd been president of American Motors), and a very rich man.
The other day, I saw Mitt Romney in person for the first time since then. He came to Silicon Valley for the first public Bay Area appearance of his presidential campaign. He's been here quite a few times to raise campaign funds - something he's quite good at - but this was his initial contact with Northern California voters.
Romney spoke at a Santa Clara restaurant, holding one of his "Ask Mitt Anything" town hall meetings. It was free, and anyone could come, and a capacity crowd did. They were mostly, but not all, Republicans, and many were undecided, curious, eager to learn more about the former Massachusetts governor.
Romney has aged well. He is 60 years old, still tall and handsome, upright and trim. He's grayed at the temples, but hey, haven't we all? (Okay, I guess I haven't, but if more of my hair hadn't abandoned my head, it might be gray by now). He's still impeccably tailored and carries himself with the assurance of a man of privilege, someone who knows who he is and feels good about it. He's comfortable with people, smooth-talking, a pleasant chatter. He looks you in the eye, finds a way to relate, smiles easily, remembers your name. It's no wonder he's made a quarter of a billion dollars, and become a successful politician -- which is why I think he's being underestimated by many of the pundits, who can't look beyond his religion, and why I think he'll do a lot better in the Republican primaries than many people expect.
I've had Mitt Romney in the top spot in my GOP Power Rankings since I started posting them in June. Some are incredulous at that, pointing to his low showing in the national polls, and dismissing Romney's chances because he's a Mormon. But the man is a fundraising machine, can (and will) supplement those donations with his own fortune, has done extraordinarily well in the early debates, and has built an impressive ground operation in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. He's been on television and radio for months now in the Midwest, where his name recognition is much higher than it is nationally, and the voters who have met him at bakeries, restaurants and these "town hall" meetings, like him.
Let's face it, Mitt has "it." "It" is, for better or worse, the main determinant of success in an American presidential election. Got it? You've got a chance. Don't? Forget it, you're Al Gore. Or John Kerry. Or Bob Dole. Or Michael Dukakis, Fritz Mondale or the first George Bush or Jimmy Carter when they were running for re-election (psst: "it" can wear off).
Unfortunately, most American voters base their Election Day decision on likability, not self-interest. Polls in 2000 showed a majority disagreed with George W. Bush's positions and beliefs, yet enough voted for him anyway to put him in position to "win" that election, simply because they felt more comfortable with him than with Al Gore. Americans want a leader who projects confidence and quiet strength, not intellectual arrogance, and certainly not tentativeness. For many, many years, the taller candidate has always won...although Bush broke that streak, by defeating the taller Kerry (Gore is taller than Bush too, but he got more popular votes, remember?). Most voters will never meet their president, let alone have a beer with him or her, so it's certainly silly to vote for someone you like in the abstract but whose policies will tangibly worsen your life -- but most don't ever bother to study those policies, so the beer buddy test has to suffice.
There's no doubt that getting the measure of a man, or woman, can tell you a lot about his or her character, and my votes in the past have certainly been influenced by my interactions with the candidates. John Edwards has a very firm handshake; Barack Obama is extremely bright and exudes charisma; Fred Thompson seems twitchy. Rudy Giuliani seems almost mean sometimes; John McCain is funny and has a quick, self-deprecating wit; Hillary Clinton comes across as incredibly smart, well-studied and self-assured. But I would still never vote for someone with whom I disagreed consistently on the issues, no matter how much I liked them. I am in a very fortunate position of uncommon access to these people, so it is my job to communicate what I can to those who aren't, to help them make a more educated decision. That's why you can hear every word Mitt Romney uttered in Santa Clara, under the Featured Audio section of his SovNat page (click on Mitt's button under Meet the Candidates) and also on the home page Featured Audio. He talked a lot about education, immigration, technology, the economy - mostly bread-and-butter, pocketbook issues that hit home with the Silicon Valley crowd. He uses words like "mosey on down" and "folks" and talks a lot about America, the future, greatness - always upbeat, optimistic, and folksy. I think he's going to wear very well on the voters, and I would not be that surprised to see him pop out of the early primaries and surge past Giuliani, Thompson and McCain.
We did catch him off guard a couple of times, though. Romney changes his positions the way other candidates change suits. How many of you have completely altered your thinking on fundamental social issues such as abortion, gay rights and gun control over the last five or ten years? Romney has. The woman who introduced him in Santa Clara enthused about how great it would be to finally have a real businessman in the White House, someone from the private sector with an MBA, sentiments Romney echoed, apparently forgetting that that also describes George W. Bush. When I asked Romney about that, he said he wasn't talking about Bush, or any of his rivals - and then proceeded to say that none of his rivals could match his Wall Street cred. We also asked him about the Blackwater scandal in Iraq, since the company's vice chairman, Cofer Black, is Romney's top campaign advisor on national security. It was the only time I saw uncertainty in his eyes. He seemed unprepared for the question, and stammered through a non-answer, about awaiting the results of the investigation into the "troubling" allegations.
Romney's nomination would be good news for Hillary Clinton, because evangelical Christians don't trust him, and conservative Republicans wouldn't be motivated to turn out for him in November. Clinton, or whomever the Democrats nominate, should prefer Romney to Fred Thompson, who might prove a more formidable general election opponent. But stand Thompson next to Romney on a stage at an Iowa county fair or a New Hampshire candidates' forum, and see who makes more voters smile and nod.
"Mit" means "with" in German. I think more and more Republicans are going to be mit Mitt, as we get closer to those first primaries. If not...with that square jaw and smooth baritone, he'd make an outstanding TV anchor. Maybe he'll swing by CBS for another visit.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Fat Man and Little Boy
No, that's not the bipartisan Dream Ticket of Mike Huckabee and Dennis Kucinich (besides, Huckabee's not fat anymore; he lost, like, a hundred pounds). It's one of the many movies in which former Senator Fred Dalton Thompson has starred. Now, like so many actors-turned-statesmen before him - well, two anyway, who made a real impact (that would be Ronnie and Arnold) - Thompson wants to move from the soundstage to the world stage. To commemorate his entry into the presidential race, we present the following updated synopses of some of Thompson's, um, best-known films:
IN THE LINE OF FIRE: What Thompson found himself in, barely a week into the race. First he said Osama bin Laden no longer matters; then he wanted him caught and killed, but "under the rule of law." Then he demurred on the Terri Schiavo case, saying he didn't remember the details, before saying later that Congress shouldn't have gotten involved; then, he was surprised to learn while visiting Florida that there's oil in the Everglades and controversy over drilling there (never mind that this was an issue while Thompson was in the Senate). A rough start for Fred. He may need to study his lines a little more. Cue the music - it's time for "Law and Order: Trial By Fire."
THE HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER: What the Republican nominee will be engaged in a year from now: trying to turn some of those blue states into red ones. You can be sure the cable networks will use this one in a logo if Thompson wins the GOP nomination.
NECESSARY ROUGHNESS: What Rudy Giuliani claims as he lays into Hillary Clinton in his new attack ads. Rudy's sinking his fangs into his fellow New Yawker for dissing General Petraeus during last week's Senate hearing, trying to somehow link her to the Move On ad that bashed the general in the New York Times. Hillary's trying to stay above the fray, deflecting questions about the ad and her snarkiness with platitudes about how much she respects the general's service, if not his conclusions. They're just getting started, folks: it will be bump and run all the way to next November.
DAYS OF THUNDER: What we're guaranteed a year from now, when the Democrats and Republicans hold their conventions within a few days of each other, and as close to 9/11 as they can get. Expect a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
CLASS ACTION: What John Edwards will file against Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and friends if they don't stop calling him the "Breck Girl." He will sue on behalf of pretty boys with long hair everywhere. God, I wish I were still part of that class...
CURLY SUE: What Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and friends will call John Edwards next.
CAPE FEAR: Where the Democrats will hold their 2008 convention, unless they clone some stem cells and grow a spine for the party before next summer.
BED OF LIES: I don't remember this movie, but Fred was in it, so I couldn't resist. But this one is too easy, so we'll move on to...
BARBARIANS AT THE GATE: The immigration plank in the Republican platform.
BABY'S DAY OUT: A freshman Senator finds himself in over his head as he runs for president with a big bag of charisma and a teeny little one of actual policies. Starring Barack Obama as himself.
SEX AND THE CITY: Hmm, are the Republicans really still going to hold their convention in Minneapolis? Can they all fit into that stall at the airport? Even while Katie Couric and Larry King anchor from there? Fifty cents says Larry Craig won't get to deliver the keynote (and yes, Fred Thompson did a guest shot on Sex and the City once).
BURY MY HEART AT WOUNDED KNEE: What each candidate instructs his handlers to do before he or she takes a deep breath and enters the presidential free-for-all.
LAST BEST CHANCE: What each candidate tells us he or she is, for Democracy and the Future of our Homeland. This one goes with...
BORN YESTERDAY: ...which is what they must think we all were, since everyone is running as the candidate of change, which is what every candidate has been promising since John Adams.
And finally...
NO WAY OUT: What the American people have, as we endure the longest, earliest and most expensive primary season ever... followed by the longest and most expensive general election campaign ever...followed by another disappointing president who is roundly criticized by carping pundits who all do stories about how there's no such thing as a presidential honeymoon anymore...followed by intensifying speculation about who will run in 2012...at which point we will start all over again.
Boy, this blog is way too cynical. Have I been on the campaign trail too long? Okay, then, we'll give it a happy ending, with:
KEEP THE CHANGE: What we all hope we will finally get to do, when Our Next President fixes the economy, cuts taxes, balances the budget, solves the mortgage crisis, brings Peace In Our Time, Joy to the World, the arts back to our schools and flowers to the streets of Baghdad.
See you next week...
IN THE LINE OF FIRE: What Thompson found himself in, barely a week into the race. First he said Osama bin Laden no longer matters; then he wanted him caught and killed, but "under the rule of law." Then he demurred on the Terri Schiavo case, saying he didn't remember the details, before saying later that Congress shouldn't have gotten involved; then, he was surprised to learn while visiting Florida that there's oil in the Everglades and controversy over drilling there (never mind that this was an issue while Thompson was in the Senate). A rough start for Fred. He may need to study his lines a little more. Cue the music - it's time for "Law and Order: Trial By Fire."
THE HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER: What the Republican nominee will be engaged in a year from now: trying to turn some of those blue states into red ones. You can be sure the cable networks will use this one in a logo if Thompson wins the GOP nomination.
NECESSARY ROUGHNESS: What Rudy Giuliani claims as he lays into Hillary Clinton in his new attack ads. Rudy's sinking his fangs into his fellow New Yawker for dissing General Petraeus during last week's Senate hearing, trying to somehow link her to the Move On ad that bashed the general in the New York Times. Hillary's trying to stay above the fray, deflecting questions about the ad and her snarkiness with platitudes about how much she respects the general's service, if not his conclusions. They're just getting started, folks: it will be bump and run all the way to next November.
DAYS OF THUNDER: What we're guaranteed a year from now, when the Democrats and Republicans hold their conventions within a few days of each other, and as close to 9/11 as they can get. Expect a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
CLASS ACTION: What John Edwards will file against Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and friends if they don't stop calling him the "Breck Girl." He will sue on behalf of pretty boys with long hair everywhere. God, I wish I were still part of that class...
CURLY SUE: What Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and friends will call John Edwards next.
CAPE FEAR: Where the Democrats will hold their 2008 convention, unless they clone some stem cells and grow a spine for the party before next summer.
BED OF LIES: I don't remember this movie, but Fred was in it, so I couldn't resist. But this one is too easy, so we'll move on to...
BARBARIANS AT THE GATE: The immigration plank in the Republican platform.
BABY'S DAY OUT: A freshman Senator finds himself in over his head as he runs for president with a big bag of charisma and a teeny little one of actual policies. Starring Barack Obama as himself.
SEX AND THE CITY: Hmm, are the Republicans really still going to hold their convention in Minneapolis? Can they all fit into that stall at the airport? Even while Katie Couric and Larry King anchor from there? Fifty cents says Larry Craig won't get to deliver the keynote (and yes, Fred Thompson did a guest shot on Sex and the City once).
BURY MY HEART AT WOUNDED KNEE: What each candidate instructs his handlers to do before he or she takes a deep breath and enters the presidential free-for-all.
LAST BEST CHANCE: What each candidate tells us he or she is, for Democracy and the Future of our Homeland. This one goes with...
BORN YESTERDAY: ...which is what they must think we all were, since everyone is running as the candidate of change, which is what every candidate has been promising since John Adams.
And finally...
NO WAY OUT: What the American people have, as we endure the longest, earliest and most expensive primary season ever... followed by the longest and most expensive general election campaign ever...followed by another disappointing president who is roundly criticized by carping pundits who all do stories about how there's no such thing as a presidential honeymoon anymore...followed by intensifying speculation about who will run in 2012...at which point we will start all over again.
Boy, this blog is way too cynical. Have I been on the campaign trail too long? Okay, then, we'll give it a happy ending, with:
KEEP THE CHANGE: What we all hope we will finally get to do, when Our Next President fixes the economy, cuts taxes, balances the budget, solves the mortgage crisis, brings Peace In Our Time, Joy to the World, the arts back to our schools and flowers to the streets of Baghdad.
See you next week...
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Obamarama
Barack Obama came back to San Francisco last Friday. You can hear my report on his visit, and the whole 33-minute speech he gave at Bill Graham Civic Auditorium, on Obama's page under Meet The Candidates (just click the Obama button, then click on what you want to hear under Featured Audio, in the righthand column). But here are some random observations:
He may be slipping in the polls, but Obama is still a rock star. A crush of Obamamaniacs, mostly women, crammed against the barricades in front of the stage after his speech, screaming as if they were at a Beatles concert, circa 1964. Grown men and women stood on tiptoe, reaching out their hands, hoping he would touch or shake them. Cell phone cameras clicked and flashed. Autograph pads were thrust across the barrier. If I'd had the foresight to set up a Sharpie stand, I'd be a rich man now. Senator Obama chatted and signed cheerfully, smiling, making small talk, moving quickly down the line, his Secret Service brigade nervous and watchful. I was in this same hall five months ago with Bill Clinton, when my band played before his speech on health care. Clinton drew a bigger crowd, and he relished the flesh-pressing more than Obama. Clinton seems to draw his very life force from contact with other human beings, especially adoring ones he can lecture. Obama was relaxed and comfortable, but he didn't linger and suck every last second out of each encounter the way Clinton does.
Obama also drew an eclectic mix of admirers, including literati and even a hoop star. I ran into a veritable Algonquin circle of Bay Area writers, each wearing a "Women for Obama" button, though most were men. I dubbed them the "Authors for Obama," which seemed acceptable to them. Berkeley's Pulitzer Prize-winning novelist Michael Chabon ("The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay," "The Yiddish Policemen's Union" and "Wonder Boys," among others) was there, with his wife, writer Ayelet Waldman (Waldman went to Harvard Law School with Obama). So was Daniel Handler, who writes for kids under the name Lemony Snicket ("An Unfortunate Series of Events"). They were palling around with Craigslist founder Craig Newmark, and a couple other members of the local intelligentsia. And holding up a wall nearby was Golden State Warriors point guard Baron Davis. Obama joked that he would be rooting for the Warriors this fall - as long as they lose to the Chicago Bulls in the NBA Finals (long-suffering Warrior fans would certainly settle for that!).
There were Catholic high school kids in plaid skirts, aging Oakland activists in dreadlocks, eager college students in Obama t-shirts and jeans. There was also a dynamo from Stanford, Julie Lythcott-Hains, who's the Dean of Freshmen, who led the crowd in Obama chants and was the firiest speaker of the day. The campaign should hire this woman as a crowd-warmer, because she whipped them into a frenzy, with humor and passion, before Barack took the stage.
Lemony Snicket is not politically active, and told me he was essentially dragged there by Waldman and Chabon. He was noncommittal about Obama, but was intrigued enough to come, and impressed by what he heard. Chabon, on the other hand, is a True Believer. He said no candidate has ever inspired this kind of passion in him; finally, after 44 years, he is moved the way young people in the 60s were by Robert F. Kennedy. Chabon spoke eloquently about Obama, and told me that the Senator's books were the clincher for him. He's extremely impressed by Obama's writing, which is high praise coming from someone as creative and imaginative as Chabon. (I will post the audio of my interviews with Chabon and Handler/Snicket, so you can hear those later this week in the Featured Audio section on Obama's page).
As for the Senator himself, he's got a new stump speech, and he delivers it as well as the previous one. The last one focused on change, a fresh perspective, new ideas. The new one talks more about his experience, responding directly to what the campaign recognizes is Obama's biggest weakness - some voters just aren't comfortable with someone so young, and with such a short government resume. The Hillary Clinton campaign has been hitting Obama hard on his lack of experience in Washington, using words like "naivete" as often as possible. The Edwards camp focuses on "change." Bill Richardson is now describing himself as the perfect combination of experience AND change. So Obama's shoring up his experience plank, by emphasizing his social justice work in Chicago before he went into elective politics.
Of course, none of this is new. Bill Clinton was a "change agent" (I always pictured him with one of those little metal changemaking machines on his belt when he said that). Gary Hart had "New Ideas," FDR the "New Deal." I can't even count how many candidates have promised "Peace and Prosperity." Every four years, we are promised new and different, hope and change, often from an outsider who, once he gets inside, will return American democracy to its Jeffersonian ideal. Jimmy Carter was a peanut farmer who'd never even BEEN to Washington. George W. Bush was the "compassionate conservative" who would unite Washington the way he did Austin. Hmmm...why is it that the qualities that get someone elected are not always the same ones that make someone good at actually running the country?
Obama's new message actually IS "Hope and Change," with a dollop of "experience that matters" thrown in there. (But of course Mike Huckabee is actually FROM Hope...the same tiny Arkansas town that gave us Bill Clinton, so he's one-up on everybody. Is there a town called Change somewhere?) Obama is smooth on the stump, easy on the eyes, and is starting to develop a nice little tinge of Martin Luther King Jr. in his cadence and timbre. So he definitely still has hope...and judging from the San Francisco crowd, he's got a lot of passionate fans...but he's still got a long way to climb to knock Hillary off the top of the mountain.
He may be slipping in the polls, but Obama is still a rock star. A crush of Obamamaniacs, mostly women, crammed against the barricades in front of the stage after his speech, screaming as if they were at a Beatles concert, circa 1964. Grown men and women stood on tiptoe, reaching out their hands, hoping he would touch or shake them. Cell phone cameras clicked and flashed. Autograph pads were thrust across the barrier. If I'd had the foresight to set up a Sharpie stand, I'd be a rich man now. Senator Obama chatted and signed cheerfully, smiling, making small talk, moving quickly down the line, his Secret Service brigade nervous and watchful. I was in this same hall five months ago with Bill Clinton, when my band played before his speech on health care. Clinton drew a bigger crowd, and he relished the flesh-pressing more than Obama. Clinton seems to draw his very life force from contact with other human beings, especially adoring ones he can lecture. Obama was relaxed and comfortable, but he didn't linger and suck every last second out of each encounter the way Clinton does.
Obama also drew an eclectic mix of admirers, including literati and even a hoop star. I ran into a veritable Algonquin circle of Bay Area writers, each wearing a "Women for Obama" button, though most were men. I dubbed them the "Authors for Obama," which seemed acceptable to them. Berkeley's Pulitzer Prize-winning novelist Michael Chabon ("The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay," "The Yiddish Policemen's Union" and "Wonder Boys," among others) was there, with his wife, writer Ayelet Waldman (Waldman went to Harvard Law School with Obama). So was Daniel Handler, who writes for kids under the name Lemony Snicket ("An Unfortunate Series of Events"). They were palling around with Craigslist founder Craig Newmark, and a couple other members of the local intelligentsia. And holding up a wall nearby was Golden State Warriors point guard Baron Davis. Obama joked that he would be rooting for the Warriors this fall - as long as they lose to the Chicago Bulls in the NBA Finals (long-suffering Warrior fans would certainly settle for that!).
There were Catholic high school kids in plaid skirts, aging Oakland activists in dreadlocks, eager college students in Obama t-shirts and jeans. There was also a dynamo from Stanford, Julie Lythcott-Hains, who's the Dean of Freshmen, who led the crowd in Obama chants and was the firiest speaker of the day. The campaign should hire this woman as a crowd-warmer, because she whipped them into a frenzy, with humor and passion, before Barack took the stage.
Lemony Snicket is not politically active, and told me he was essentially dragged there by Waldman and Chabon. He was noncommittal about Obama, but was intrigued enough to come, and impressed by what he heard. Chabon, on the other hand, is a True Believer. He said no candidate has ever inspired this kind of passion in him; finally, after 44 years, he is moved the way young people in the 60s were by Robert F. Kennedy. Chabon spoke eloquently about Obama, and told me that the Senator's books were the clincher for him. He's extremely impressed by Obama's writing, which is high praise coming from someone as creative and imaginative as Chabon. (I will post the audio of my interviews with Chabon and Handler/Snicket, so you can hear those later this week in the Featured Audio section on Obama's page).
As for the Senator himself, he's got a new stump speech, and he delivers it as well as the previous one. The last one focused on change, a fresh perspective, new ideas. The new one talks more about his experience, responding directly to what the campaign recognizes is Obama's biggest weakness - some voters just aren't comfortable with someone so young, and with such a short government resume. The Hillary Clinton campaign has been hitting Obama hard on his lack of experience in Washington, using words like "naivete" as often as possible. The Edwards camp focuses on "change." Bill Richardson is now describing himself as the perfect combination of experience AND change. So Obama's shoring up his experience plank, by emphasizing his social justice work in Chicago before he went into elective politics.
Of course, none of this is new. Bill Clinton was a "change agent" (I always pictured him with one of those little metal changemaking machines on his belt when he said that). Gary Hart had "New Ideas," FDR the "New Deal." I can't even count how many candidates have promised "Peace and Prosperity." Every four years, we are promised new and different, hope and change, often from an outsider who, once he gets inside, will return American democracy to its Jeffersonian ideal. Jimmy Carter was a peanut farmer who'd never even BEEN to Washington. George W. Bush was the "compassionate conservative" who would unite Washington the way he did Austin. Hmmm...why is it that the qualities that get someone elected are not always the same ones that make someone good at actually running the country?
Obama's new message actually IS "Hope and Change," with a dollop of "experience that matters" thrown in there. (But of course Mike Huckabee is actually FROM Hope...the same tiny Arkansas town that gave us Bill Clinton, so he's one-up on everybody. Is there a town called Change somewhere?) Obama is smooth on the stump, easy on the eyes, and is starting to develop a nice little tinge of Martin Luther King Jr. in his cadence and timbre. So he definitely still has hope...and judging from the San Francisco crowd, he's got a lot of passionate fans...but he's still got a long way to climb to knock Hillary off the top of the mountain.
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